Public Funding for W B Chambers Farms Limited

FinerForecasts is a collaborative project led by FruitCast, partnered with the University of Lincoln and Chambers, a soft fruit grower in Kent, UK. The project will improve the accuracy of soft fruit crop forecasting using observation-based systems. Crop forecasting is essential for fresh produce business operations as it enables farmers to match supply and demand, set forward prices, reduce waste, plan labour, and optimise resources. Existing forecast tools range from grower intuition to models powered by machine learning, and are notoriously unreliable, leading to loss of income. FinerForecasts will develop a plant mapping system, enabling plant-level forecasting, which incorporates variability between plants, improves the overall forecast accuracy, and enables growers to optimise resources and address problem spots before yield is impacted. This extends FruitCast's current observational-based forecasting approach involves taking videos of crops and locating fruit and flowers within them to predict the age, weight, and harvest date. The project aims to achieve three objectives: (i) provide reliable yield forecasts within 15% error 3 weeks ahead for entire grower sites from a biologically regulated yield forecasting model, (ii) generate plant-level, agronomically relevant maps of forecasted yield and its variability for optimisation strategies for resource allocation, and (iii) develop a digital architecture capable of scaling the developed forecasting system across multiple sites at a per-plant resolution, ready for the UK market. FinerForecasts will produce more accurate yield forecasts, contributing up to £56m(see\_outcomes\_and\_route\_to\_market) of benefits to the current strawberry market, and the generation of new tools for growers to manage crops. The project also aims to reduce waste (currently 18KT) and the CO2 emissions (46KT CO2e), water, and pesticides embedded in that waste, reducing environmental impact, driving productivity, and securing a more resilient and sustainable fresh produce sector. FinerForecasts leverages FruitCast's ability to quickly and cheaply measure crop state from videos to make plant-level forecasts possible at commercial scales, increasing forecast accuracy. The University of Lincoln's expertise in agri-robotics and AI will contribute to the project's success, and Chambers' support will enable data collection and deployment of systems. FinerForecasts will transform the soft fruit industry by providing accurate and granular yield forecasts, reducing waste and environmental impact, optimising resources, and improving the resilience and sustainability of the fresh produce sector.

UK berry production contributed £629M to the economy in 2021, increasing income by a third within 10 years. Berry production is also essential for human health as high-value and high-quality fruits provide a range of antioxidants, vitamins and fibre. However, berry production faces challenges in production related to a range of emerging and increasing pests and diseases. The global soft fruit industry suffers significant crop losses from an invasive fruit fly, spotted wing drosophila (SWD). SWD lays eggs in fruit before it is harvested, causing up to 80% crop loss. The potential market in the UK, Europe and USA for SWD control is £11bn. High value crops like strawberry, cherries, blueberries, blackberries and raspberries, are reliant on chemical insecticides to protect them from SWD. In previous work, we have already identified a candidate repellent for SWD and a trapping system to remove SWD from fruit crops. In this project we will test a combination of these two approaches in a 'push-pull' strategy; 'pushing' SWD out of the crop and 'pulling' it away from the crop to reduce direct damage to fruits before they are harvested. Our approach is a more targeted and less environmentally damaging method to SWD control. We will first test our push-pull system with two major English fruit growers in commercial strawberry crops and we will begin to test on crops even more attractive to SWD, like raspberry. Reduction in fruit damage by SWD will be quantified and effects on beneficial insects minimised. In parallel work, novel biodegradable formulations of the repellent will be developed, lures in the traps further improved and deployment patterns for both repellent and traps optimised. This push-pull strategy will be a first for this global pest and enable fruit growers to improve productivity cost-effectively and sustainably by reducing insecticide applications and residues in saleable fruit, reducing labour inputs, and contributing to the progression to net zero. The project will be led by Russell IPM, the UK's largest producer of biorational approaches to control of pests and diseases who will exploit this potentially game-changing solution to SWD. Two major English growers, Rumwood Green Farms Ltd. and WB Chambers and Son, will provide facilities and labour for carrying out field trials. Academic partners are NIAB who are world leaders in applied SWD research, and NRI, University of Greenwich, will work with Russell to develop new attractants and repellent formulations.